Macroeconomic Strategy Team
4 April 2023
Events of the past quarter have strengthened our conviction on several of the team’s core economic views.
In our view, the macro backdrop will get worse before it gets better in the current global economic cycle, and investors should expect to experience higher and longer bouts of volatility through the first half of 2023.
At this point, we believe it’s crucial to reassess how we should be thinking about the Fed’s approach to policy making, especially in the context of the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history which has raised doubts about the health of the U.S. banking system.
A stable rate environment should be a fillip for Asia REITs
Asia REITs offer investors a unique income opportunity in the new year as rates have likely peaked with the possibility of declining borrowing costs in 2024.
Accelerating momentum amid a transitioning macro backdrop
A changing global rates environment positions Asian Fixed Income to accelerate in 2024 with attractive nominal yields and carry opportunities.
Stable or declining rates could benefit attractively valued preferred securities
While preferreds have partially rebounded from their lowest point of the year, their valuations are still viewed as potentially attractive, given they are trading at a significant discount to par value with yields at their highest level in 10 years. We maintain our favourable view on the asset class.
Cash is king?
Amid volatile market conditions and higher interest rates, seeking security by burying your savings in a deposit account is tempting. As the saying goes, “cash is king”. Or is it?
Better Income
A “Better Income” approach seeks to understand an investor’s investment objective alongside the underlying risk of certain levels of income generation. “Better” income may not refer to the highest income level but the stability and consistency of reasonably higher yields generated throughout various market cycles.
Asset allocation outlook: balance of risks tilt to the downside
Investors are navigating an environment characterized by significant global economic resilience, but with crosscurrents. We review some of the themes driving our latest asset allocation outlook.